A recent study in America confirmed the finding that high school grades are the most accurate predictor of student success in the first year of college. This is immediately intuitive. In a similar way, the past performance of investment managers is often imagined to be a useful predictor of future returns. In our industry, intuition does not correspond with reality as a good period of performance is just as likely to be followed by a poor one, write Rick Di Mascio of Inalytics and Simon Savage of GLG Partners.
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